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NEW PREDICTION MARKET PAPER by David Lee and Enrico Moretti of Princeton and Berkeley, respectively.
INTERESTING 2004 PAPER from Steve Levitt about why financial markets and gambling markets -- despite many common features -- have evolved different structures.
IRISH BOOKMAKER PADDYPOWER has already paid out on Obama.
One wonders what they'll do if McCain somehow squeaks out a win!
WISDOM OF CROWDS AUTHOR JAMES SUROWIECKI now has a blog.
VERY INTERESTING POST on the Consensus Point blog about the prediction markets at Best Buy.
A COALITION OF REGULATED EXCHANGES including NYSE Arca, International Securities Exchange, Chicago Board Options Exchange and the American Stock Exchange have written a letter to the CFTC about event contracts whose purpose seems to be protecting the SEC's turf.
BLOOMBERG ON GOOGLE INTERNAL TRADING: I THOUGHT CLAYTON HARRISON did a great job in this article in Bloomberg on Google's prediction markets and the research around them.
THE NOTE is a great daily political newsletter. Unfortunately, ABC News is a bit too old media to realize that the note should have its own full-text RSS feed. To get The Note by RSS, you've got to sign up for a feed containing all of ABCNews political stories -- a fraction of which are The Note.
While we're waiting on ABC to come into the modern era, I've created a feed using Yahoo! Pipes that scrubs out all of the non-Note stuff out of ABCNews.com's political feed. Enjoy. And check out Yahoo! Pipes, which is a very cool and intuitive application.
"COWGILL BATTERING MINORS": This must be the worst headline AP has ever written. The actual story is about how my cousin Colin is having a great first season in professional baseball. He was signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks earlier this year.
Also, congrats to my other cousin Jean Ellen who was valedictorian from Dartmouth in June.
YOU TELL 'EM!: "The regulation of [election and policy event contracts] follows from the history of enlightened, flexible innovation exemplified by the CFTC." -- Jason Ruspini.
Also check out the encouraging statement from the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, whose input is likely to be taken seriously because of its member financial organizations.
Link via Chris Masse. The big question I want to know: Will the CME or CBOT write in? What about anyone from the enterprise prediction market space?
STEVEN PINKER'S STUFF OF THOUGHT: Worthy read.
WELL, YEAH: The Chinese government will lose ten times as much “face” and respect by crude, highly visible control measures than they might lose if some unplanned protest or demonstration got air time. James Fallows, Atlantic Monthly.
MY TALK AT O'REILLY MONEYTECH: Still working on this talk, but I'd say it went moderately well.
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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed on this site are the author's and not necessarily his employer's.
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